WASHINGTON / BEIJING - An arms sale by the United States to Taiwan, a probability accordingto media reports, will damage relations with China and trigger strong reaction from Beijing,analysts said.
According to a Washington Times report over the weekend, the Obama administration wasexpected to formally notify Congress this week of a $4.2-billion arms deal to Taiwan that willinclude an upgrade for the island's aging fleet of F-16 fighter jets.
Taiwan applied in 2007 to buy 66 F-16 C/D fighters. These jets have better radar and morepowerful weapons than the 146 F-16 A/B fighters it currently has.
US President Barack Obama had reportedly decided against selling Taiwan the advanced F-16model, the C/D fighters, despite requests from Taipei and Congress. But Obama may authorizethe sale of upgrade kits for the F-16 A/B model.
Beijing has already warned of severe consequences if the arms package goes ahead.
Zhou Tienong, vice-chairman of China's top legislature, said on Saturday during a visit toWashington that an arms sale to Taiwan will hurt not only Sino-US relations and cross-Straitsties but also the interests of the American people.
Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu on Friday urged the US to abide by the three jointcommuniqués on relations in which the US pledged to reduce arms sales to the island.
US arms sales to Taiwan have long been a source of tension in cross-Straits, and China-US,relations. Beijing broke off military ties in January last year in protest against a $6.4 billion USarms sale to Taiwan which included Patriot missiles, Black Hawk helicopters and equipment forTaiwan's existing F-16 fleet. China rejected a proposal for a visit by US Defense SecretaryRobert Gates in June 2010. It was not until the end of 2010 that military-to-military exchangesresumed.
Beijing will react fiercely if the Obama administration allows the arms sale, according to anarticle published on financial news website caixun.com.
Any sale would be a gross intervention in China's internal affairs and cast a shadow over Sino-US relations, the article said.
If the sale went through "a smokeless war on the economic front would occur between Chinaand the US", it said. The article also suggested that China should reduce its huge holdings ofUS Treasury bonds as part of retaliatory measures.
"I certainly expect that we will see reaction from China and we will see suspension of somemilitary exchanges," Bonnie Glaser, China security expert with the Center for Strategic andInternational Studies (CSIS), said.
But neither Washington nor Beijing wanted to see it escalate, she said during a discussion atthe US-China Policy Foundation last week.
Tao Wenzhao, a senior researcher at Tsinghua University, said that any arms sale thatoccurred 32 years after the normalization of China-US relations "is incompatible with the bigpicture".
"The (arms sale) hurts China's core interests. And to keep on doing the wrong thing for 30years just doesn't make it right," he added.
The arms package is also incompatible with the peaceful cross-Straits situation, Tao said.
Cross-Straits relations have stabilized since incumbent island leader Ma Ying-jeou of theKuomintang took office in 2008. Ma has been pursuing close economic ties with the mainland.
"The US said it supports peace and stability in cross-Straits relations there is no need to sellmore arms to Taiwan," Tao added.
The upcoming leadership election in Taiwan is becoming another factor that might affect Sino-US relations.
"The position of the Taiwan leader who wins the 2012 election is key to the solution of theTaiwan question," said Xin Qi, vice-president of the China Association of Cultural Development,a non-profit civic group that promotes reunification.
There were reports that Washington was concerned about the inability of Tsai Ing-wen tosustain the cross-Straits relationship.
Tsai, the leader of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), visited Washington lastweek to seek support for her "presidential" campaign against Ma.
A senior US official said Tsai had sparked concern about stability across the Taiwan Straitsafter she met with administration officials in Washington, the Financial Times reported.
"She left us with distinct doubts about whether she is both willing and able to continue thestability in cross-Straits relations the region has enjoyed in recent years," the unnamed officialwas quoted as saying.
Richard Bush, director for Northeast Asian Policy Studies with the Brookings Institution, said: "We were very anxious about the situation during 1995 to 2008 (when the DPP was the rulingparty and pushed for Taiwan's 'independence'). We have welcomed what has happened sinceMa took office."
Tsai would "rattle" Beijing, Glaser, from the CSIS, said.
"The improvement of cross-Straits relations is in the interest of all three sides," said RobertSutter, professor of international affairs at George Washington University.
"The idea of going back to that (the turbulent situation under former Taiwan leader Chen Shui-bian's leadership) is not possible, given the negative experiences all three sides had in thatperiod."
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